Brad Kooima of KKV Trading said later calving dates and heavier cattle may be shifting the tightest period for fed cattle supplies from February and March into May and June. He added that seasonal patterns have become less reliable since COVID-19.
Producers are also retaining more replacement heifers to rebuild the cow herd.
If the tightest fed supply moves later into spring, cattle prices and feed demand could peak in May and June rather than the traditional winter-spring window, changing the timing of feeding decisions and hedging. Heifer retention also tightens near-term beef supply.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.