
Brazilian equities and the real fell on Tuesday after the government raised taxes on banks and the chemical industry and cut them on diesel and cooking gas. The dollar rose about 2% against the real, reaching a three-month low for the currency despite a $1 billion central bank spot sale.
The Bovespa index fell as much as 2.7% intraday before recovering to a 1.3% loss by midday.
The tax changes raised doubts about Brazil's fiscal and economic direction, which pushed the real weaker and makes Brazilian exports cheaper in dollar terms. A cheaper real can support export selling of soy and corn, while the diesel tax cut lowers fuel costs for farm and freight operations.
Tras 12 eventos alcista de política pasados, Real brasileño (BRL por USD) se movió una mediana de +1,5 % en 5 sesiones (58% al alza; mitad central entre -1,1 % y +2,0 %), y +2,3 % en 20.
Tras 21 eventos bajista de política pasados, ULSD / Diésel se movió una mediana de -2,4 % en 5 sesiones (38% al alza; mitad central entre -6,5 % y +4,7 %), y -1,1 % en 20.
Variaciones de la referencia de cada materia prima desde el último cierre antes del evento. Las lecturas históricas agrupan eventos pasados del mismo tipo; describen lo ocurrido, no lo que ocurrirá. No es asesoramiento de inversión.
Tax changes (hikes on banks and chemicals, cuts on diesel and cooking gas) raised fiscal concerns and triggered real weakness and equity selling, contributing to the depreciation momentum, but the event is dated two days before the move.