Soybean meal and corn slip, cutting least-cost feed formulas about 2% this week, while diesel and freight risk stay high

Benchmarks were mostly quiet at the Oct 30 close. Soybean meal fell 1.1% and corn 0.5%, which pulled this week's template feed costs down roughly 1-2.7% across species and about 3-5% over four weeks. Energy stays expensive (Brent +85% y/y), and funds remain heavily long soy complex, so some price risk remains despite the easing.

Feed cost

Least-cost template formulas fell across the board in the week ending Oct 30. The biggest weekly drops were Tilapia grow-out (-2.7%), Turkey starter (-2.5%), Pullet starter (-2.4%) and Broiler starter (-2.3%). Broiler grower fell 1.8% to $288.9/t, driven mainly by soybean meal (-$3.85/t) and corn (-$1.57/t), with soybean oil negligible. Swine creep, at $484.4/t, is the most expensive formula but fell only 1.5%. These are template formulas, not any mill's actual cost.

Grains and harvest

Corn closed at $214.32/t, 46% of its 52-week range, and soybeans at $449.10/t (+0.2%). USDA puts soybean harvest at 89% and corn at 54% (vs 37% a week earlier), though wet fall weather has slowed the Corn Belt, particularly Iowa, and raised quality and lodging concerns. Corn export commitments are 28% of USDA's target versus a 40% five-year average, so demand support is lagging. SRW wheat sits at 85% of its range, up 12.7% y/y.

Protein meals and fishmeal

Soybean meal fell 1.1% to $396.63/t, mid-range at 56%. Meal export commitments are 29% of USDA's target versus a 37% average, though last week's net sales of 383k st topped the 326.9k needed per week. Fishmeal (monthly, Sept) is $2,916/t, at its 52-week high, and Peru has closed its 2026 anchoveta season amid El Niño. Buyers using fishmeal in aqua or young-animal diets may find soybean meal the cheaper protein.

Livestock

Feeder cattle fell 3.8% on the day (z -6) on reports of selling pressure linked to the corn rally, and lean hogs hit a contract-low close at $63.71/cwt, down 25.3% y/y. Weak hog and cattle margins could soften integrator demand for feed or push for tighter pricing. Mexican cattle imports were suspended for 15 days after a screwworm detection, and US beef import plans are drawing pushback from cattle groups.

Energy, freight and macro

OPEC+ held December output targets, and Brent settled at $117.64 on Oct 30. The IEA expects diesel to stay tight into 2027. Barge freight at St. Louis eased 5.1% to $31.91/mt, and Cairo-Memphis downbound rates hit a 13-week low, but falling Mississippi water levels are a risk. Ocean freight (monthly, Sept) is at a 52-week high of $53.39/mt, and BIMCO flags Hormuz risk. Brazil's real fell sharply after the Oct 25 election, which can affect soybean export pricing.

Positioning

Managed money cut corn longs by 83,310 contracts to a net 81,113 (60th percentile). Funds remain very long soybeans (94th percentile) and soybean meal (99th percentile), so a liquidation could weigh on prices but a reversal could also sharply lift them. Lean hogs are at the 0th percentile, with funds at their most bearish.

Number of the day: 99th percentile

Managed money net long in soybean meal (168,714 contracts). Crowded fund length in meal means price moves in either direction could be sharp, so coverage decisions should allow for volatility.

What to watch

• 2026-11-02: USDA Crop Progress: corn and soybean harvest pace after wet weather
• 2026-11-05: USDA Export Sales: corn commitments (28% vs 40% average) and soybean meal pace
• 2026-11-06: CFTC Commitments of Traders: whether funds keep trimming soy complex length
• 2026-11-10: WASDE: next USDA supply and demand update