Corn and meal edge up while least-cost feed formulas hold near 4-week lows; wheat firms on India export-curb talk and Black Sea risk

Markets were mostly quiet on Monday: corn +0.3%, soybean meal +0.2%, soybeans -0.2% and soybean oil -0.1%, with SRW wheat at 86% of its 52-week range. Wheat is the firmest feed grain on reports India is weighing export curbs, and Black Sea and Hormuz shipping risks remain in the background. Template feed costs are up 0.1-0.2% this week but still 2-5% below four weeks ago.

Grains

Corn is 215.26 $/mt, mid-range at 49% of the 52-week band, and up 6.8% on the year. SRW wheat is 264.17 $/mt (+0.1%), near the top of its range, and HRW added 0.4%; news says wheat jumped as India weighs export curbs on poor-quality crops. Black Sea risk persists: Russia is testing Arctic exports, and drone attacks have more than doubled some freight rates since mid-July. Sorghum (monthly, September) is at its 52-week high of 186.23, so older data may understate current levels. US corn export commitments are 28% of USDA's forecast versus a 40% five-year average, so demand is not tight.

Protein meals and fats

Soybean meal is 397.50 $/mt (+0.2%), at 56% of its range. Soybeans are 62% committed for export versus a 51% average, while meal is 29% versus 37%. Low water on the Argentine river is constraining soybean barge loadings. Palm oil is flat at 1,145.25 $/mt; Malaysian stocks hit a record 3.51 million tonnes in September, and industry is lobbying for a pause in export duty, which is 10% for November with no decision yet. Fishmeal (2,916 $/mt) and DDGS (225.70 $/mt) are monthly September prints at 52-week highs; Peru's anchoveta fishery is under El Niño pressure.

Feed cost

Template formulas for the week ending 2026-11-06 are up 0.1-0.2% on the week. The largest 1-week increases (+0.2%) were in broiler starter and grower, pullet starter and developer, layers, breeders, turkey starter, and swine nursery. Broiler grower is 289.4 $/t, with the weekly change driven by corn (+0.29 $/t) and soybean meal (+0.16 $/t); soybean oil was neutral. Over four weeks, costs are down 1.7-4.6%, most in pullet starter (-4.6%), broiler and turkey starters (-4.4%). These are template formulas, not any mill's actual cost.

Livestock and dairy

Lean hogs are at the bottom of their 52-week range (63.71 $/cwt, -25.3% on the year), and managed money is at its most net short. Feeder cattle fell sharply last week on selling tied to the corn rally. Screwworm spreading north through Mexico is a concern for Texas ranchers. Class III milk bounced strongly, though EU milk output is up 3% and farm-gate prices are down about 20%.

Energy, freight and macro

Brent is 115.46 $/bbl (-0.6%) and diesel 4.60 $/gal, up 88.5% on the year, which keeps delivered costs elevated. BIMCO names the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz as dry bulk's biggest uncertainty. Ocean grain freight (September monthly) is at its 52-week high of 53.39 $/mt. The Sunshine Bridge closure near Donaldsonville, Louisiana affects local road traffic on the Mississippi. St. Louis barge freight eased 5.1% to 31.91 $/mt. Broad dollar data are dated 10-23.

Positioning

As of 10-27, managed money cut its corn net long by 83,310 to 81,113, the 60th percentile. Soybeans (94th percentile) and soybean meal (99th percentile) remain crowded longs even after trimming. Crowded long positions can lead to sharper price drops if sentiment turns, though that is not a forecast.

Number of the day: 99th percentile

Managed money net long in soybean meal (168,714 contracts, 10-27). Funds are near record long in meal, so buyers should expect price swings if positions are liquidated.

What to watch

• 2026-11-04: EIA weekly petroleum status (ethanol), a read for DDGS supply.
• 2026-11-05: USDA export sales: corn at 28% committed versus a 40% average, soybean meal at 29% versus 37%.
• 2026-11-06: CFTC Commitments of Traders: soybean and meal positioning after last week's trimming.
• 2026-11-10: WASDE.