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Analysts polled by Commerzbank expect the Brazilian central bank to cut its key rate by 100 basis points, with some forecasting 125 basis points. The bank has cut rates from 14.25% to 12.25% since October 2016, while real rates remain near 7%.
Falling inflation, weak GDP and a stable currency are cited as reasons for the cuts.
Lower interest rates reduce the carry advantage of holding reais, which can weaken the currency and make Brazilian exports cheaper, while also signaling a weaker domestic economy.
在过去 301 次看涨的宏观事件之后,巴西雷亚尔(每 USD 的 BRL) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.4%(57% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.2% 至 +1.7%),20 个交易日内为 +1.0%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。