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ING analysts expect the Fed to cut rates by 100 basis points over the first half of 2020 in response to coronavirus. They also forecast 10-year Treasury yields falling to 0.75% and EUR/USD rising to 1.15.
They see a supply shock turning into a financial shock and a possible demand shock, with a negative Q2 U.S. GDP print a clear possibility.
Lower U.S. rates and yields would weaken the dollar, which tends to support dollar-priced commodities. Expected demand weakness from the virus could also pressure energy and industrial-linked commodity prices.
think.ing.comJames Knightley, Padhraic Garvey, CFA, Chris Turner2020年3月2日在过去 1,637 次看跌的宏观事件之后，美元(广义) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.2%（39% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.6% 至 +0.3%），20 个交易日内为 -0.2%。
在过去 388 次看涨的宏观事件之后，欧元(每 EUR 的 USD) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.3%（62% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.4% 至 +1.1%），20 个交易日内为 +0.1%。
在过去 565 次看跌的宏观事件之后，原油(WTI) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -1.4%（41% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -5.9% 至 +3.0%），20 个交易日内为 -0.5%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
On 2 March ING expected aggressive Fed cuts and lower Treasury yields, which narrows the rate differential and supports EUR/USD.
Expectations of 100bp of Fed cuts and falling Treasury yields imply a narrowing rate differential, supporting a higher EUR/USD and reinforcing the dollar-weakness driver.
Same-day ING view that Fed cuts will lower Treasury yields and the dollar reflects the expectations driving the move.
