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A University of Nebraska-Lincoln study of 1968-2013 data found that temperature and precipitation shifts explained about 25 percent of yield variability in corn, soybeans and sorghum across the Great Plains. The effects varied by county and crop, reaching up to 52 percent of variance in some counties and almost none in others.
The findings point to location-specific climate risk rather than a uniform national yield shift, so they add little near-term price signal. They do suggest that regional weather shocks can affect supply in ways a national average would miss.
farmprogress.com2018年4月3日在过去 445 次中性的天气事件之后，玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.1%（52% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +1.6%），20 个交易日内为 +0.7%。
在过去 324 次中性的天气事件之后，大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.0%（52% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +1.7%），20 个交易日内为 +0.7%。
历史可比事件尚不足，暂无法给出历史解读。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
