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Verisk's climate economist told crop insurers that Midwest corn yields have risen since 1974 due to a warming trend and more precipitation. She projected that yields will likely decline by mid-century, assuming unchanged genetics, because weather variability will create more bad years.
Verisk is incorporating climate change into its insurance loss models.
The projection of rising weather volatility and more bad years supports a long-term risk premium in corn, but it is not a near-term supply shock.
在过去 445 次中性的天气事件之后,玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.1%(52% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +1.6%),20 个交易日内为 +0.7%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。