
USDA chief economist Rob Johansson said the department will factor China's and Mexico's retaliatory tariffs into its next global supply and demand report if they take effect, assuming they persist through the year. China's extra 25% duty on more than 500 US goods, including soybeans, is set for July 6, and Mexico has already imposed about $3 billion in tariffs on US products.
Tariffs that hold through fall would divert Chinese soybean purchases to South America and widen US soybean price discounts, bearish for US soy and pork export demand.
在过去 803 次看跌的贸易事件之后,大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.0%(51% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.7% 至 +1.7%),20 个交易日内为 +0.9%。
在过去 384 次看跌的贸易事件之后,豆粕 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.2%(47% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.7% 至 +1.6%),20 个交易日内为 -0.5%。
在过去 123 次看跌的贸易事件之后,生猪(瘦肉型) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.4%(43% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -2.9% 至 +2.0%),20 个交易日内为 -0.2%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
USDA signaled it would factor the China tariffs due July 6 into its supply and demand report, so the market was repricing the trade shock just before the tariffs took effect.