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DTN analyst Joel Karlin notes corn futures have rallied at least 30 cents since July 12 on fund short covering, lower coarse grain estimates in the EU and Black Sea, and the lowest stocks-to-use projections in five years. He estimates 2018/19 U.S. ending stocks could be at least 130 million bushels below USDA's May projection, depending on yield and export assumptions.
If USDA's 174 bpa yield is too low versus the trade's 177-178 estimate, the stocks outlook could tighten further or ease depending on exports, so yield and export pace will set corn price direction. Lower projected stocks are supportive for corn and feed costs.
dtnpf.comJoel Karlin2018年7月31日在过去 1,040 次看涨的报告事件之后，玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.5%（62% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.9% 至 +2.0%），20 个交易日内为 +0.8%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
