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StoneX analyst Josh Linville expects global phosphate values to stay under pressure into mid-2023 because world demand has been weaker than expected. He also cites China returning to normal export volumes and a high-cost Florida producer seeing its costs fall.
Expected weak demand and rising Chinese supply point to lower phosphate prices, which lowers DAP costs for feed phosphate buyers. Fall and spring demand are seen as cautious, so the pressure may persist.
stonex.comJosh Linville2023年4月27日stonex.comJosh Linville2023年4月27日在过去 480 次中性的贸易事件之后，玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%（54% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.1% 至 +1.6%），20 个交易日内为 +0.7%。
在过去 40 次看跌的贸易事件之后，DAP 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.1%（38% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -3.7% 至 +0.5%），20 个交易日内为 -2.4%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
StoneX expects phosphate prices to stay under pressure because global demand is weaker than expected, China is returning to normal export volumes, and a high-cost Florida producer's costs are falling, all of which point to bearish supply and demand fundamentals consistent with a sharp DAP drop.
Dated 2023-04-27, a day before the drop, it signals weak global phosphate demand, China returning to normal export volumes and falling producer costs, all bearish for DAP prices and plausibly feeding a sharp one-day selloff.
StoneX's bearish view on phosphates (weak global demand, China returning to normal export volumes, falling producer costs) published on the move date points to supply-side and sentiment pressure on DAP prices.
StoneX expects phosphate values to stay under pressure due to weaker-than-expected demand and China returning to normal export volumes, which reinforces the bearish supply/demand mechanism.
