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Lombard Odier expects the dollar to weaken in 2019 after its 2018 rally, which was driven by wider US-rest of world rate differentials. It expects US fiscal stimulus to fade and the twin-deficit problem to raise US risk premia.
The bank also flagged global downturn and US-China trade escalation as risks to its view.
A weaker dollar in 2019 would support US dollar-denominated grain and meal exports. The forecast depends on trade and growth risks that could change the outlook.
lombardodier.comVasileios Gkionakis, PhD2018年11月13日在过去 1,637 次看跌的宏观事件之后，美元(广义) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.2%（39% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.6% 至 +0.3%），20 个交易日内为 -0.2%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
