
ING analysts say falling dollar interbank rates should pull the dollar lower as commercial paper issuance rises and 3-month dollar Libor drops to 0.88%. They forecast EUR/USD near 1.20 and USD/JPY near 100 by year-end, and expect US first-quarter GDP to contract sharply.
Lower dollar funding costs and a weaker dollar generally support US commodity prices in dollar terms. The analysts' forecast of a weaker dollar, combined with a sharp US growth contraction, would be a modest tailwind for export-linked grain and oilseed markets.
在过去 1,637 次看跌的宏观事件之后,美元(广义) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.2%(39% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -0.6% 至 +0.3%),20 个交易日内为 -0.2%。
在过去 388 次看涨的宏观事件之后,欧元(每 EUR 的 USD) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.3%(62% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -0.4% 至 +1.1%),20 个交易日内为 +0.1%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。