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Agricultural economists Glynn Tonsor and Lee Schulz modeled the price effects of meat plant closures tied to COVID-19. Their beef model links a 1% cut in processing capacity to a 1.32% drop in fed cattle prices.
Their hog model links a 1% cut in pork packing capacity to a 1.82% drop in hog prices.
Packing capacity losses from COVID-19 closures could push cattle and hog prices lower because the industry has little spare slaughter capacity. Feeder buyers should watch plant utilization closely.
feedstuffs.comKrissa Welshans2020年4月13日在过去 70 次看跌的疫病事件之后，活牛 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.0%（51% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.7% 至 +1.0%），20 个交易日内为 +0.4%。
在过去 117 次看跌的疫病事件之后，生猪(瘦肉型) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.6%（36% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -2.2% 至 +1.6%），20 个交易日内为 +1.2%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
Economist modeling published April 13 linked a 1% cut in pork packing capacity to a 1.82% drop in hog prices, so plant closures were framed as strongly bearish for hogs ahead of the April 15 drop.
