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Cattle markets fell sharply during COVID-19 uncertainty, with LMIC economist Jim Robb citing a 6.7% rise in US beef production and heavier-than-expected weights and slaughter. He also flagged an oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia and a rising recession probability.
Heavier beef output and weaker demand expectations point to lower cattle prices and softer demand for feed inputs, while low oil prices add to macro uncertainty.
thefencepost.comRachel Gabel2020年3月13日在过去 37 次看跌的宏观事件之后，活牛 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -1.1%（30% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -4.3% 至 +0.4%），20 个交易日内为 -0.4%。
在过去 27 次看跌的宏观事件之后，架子牛 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.9%（37% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -3.7% 至 +0.4%），20 个交易日内为 0.0%。
在过去 565 次看跌的宏观事件之后，原油(WTI) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -1.4%（41% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -5.9% 至 +3.0%），20 个交易日内为 -0.5%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
Notes heavy beef production, oil price war and recession risk driving cattle markets lower on March 13.
Heavier beef production, oil price war and recession fears weighed on cattle demand expectations and sentiment during the selloff.
Cites COVID-19 uncertainty, heavy beef production and weights, the oil price war and recession odds as reasons for the sharp cattle market drop (supply and macro sentiment).
