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Russian 12.5% wheat rose $8.50 week on week to $236.50/mt FOB but eased from the week's start as Chicago lost nearly 5%. Abnormally dry September conditions across the Black Sea, with many Russian and Ukrainian fields lacking topsoil moisture, persist as a bullish factor.
Dryness during winter planting in the Black Sea raises concern for the 2021 crop, which could support wheat prices if rain fails to arrive, though competition from other origins caps gains.
blog.sizov.reportAndrey Sizov2020年9月28日在过去 322 次看涨的天气事件之后，小麦(HRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.1%（49% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -2.5% 至 +3.2%），20 个交易日内为 +1.0%。
在过去 1,072 次看涨的天气事件之后，小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%（55% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +2.3%），20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
Dryness across the Black Sea and Russian/Ukrainian fields lacking topsoil moisture is a supply-risk factor that supports a bullish rebound after Chicago's near 5% loss earlier in the week.
