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Marin Bozic of the University of Minnesota says US September milk production rose 2.4% year on year, while only 16% of milk was covered by Dairy Revenue Protection for January to March 2021, down from 31% in the third quarter. He argues that CFAP and food box programs supported 2020 dairy incomes but may not continue at the same scale in 2021.
He also flags possible dairy-specific disruptions from limited US cheese capacity.
Rising milk supply and less hedging, combined with possible withdrawal of government support, point to downside risk for milk prices and dairy demand in 2021.
hoards.comMarin Bozic2020年11月6日在过去 49 次看跌的宏观事件之后，牛奶(III类) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.6%（33% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -8.5% 至 +0.6%），20 个交易日内为 -7.5%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
