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Rabobank says global fertiliser stocks are rebuilding and urea and phosphate prices, now about half their two-year peaks, could fall as much as 15% over the next five months. About 7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate are likely to reach the market after Beijing suspended exports.
Rising farm fuel prices and a lack of official guidance on Chinese export quotas add uncertainty.
Expected release of Chinese phosphate supply and rebuilding stocks should push DAP and urea prices lower, easing input costs for feed grain producers. Gas-linked risks could limit the decline, and China's export quota decisions remain a key swing factor.
farmonline.com.auAndrew Marshall2024年4月24日在过去 34 次看跌的政策事件之后，尿素 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.8%（38% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -3.3% 至 +1.8%），20 个交易日内为 -4.5%。
在过去 50 次看跌的政策事件之后，DAP 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.9%（62% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.1% 至 +1.6%），20 个交易日内为 +0.9%。
在过去 13 次看涨的政策事件之后，天然气 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -1.7%（46% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -2.4% 至 +4.5%），20 个交易日内为 +5.3%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
Rabobank's outlook for phosphate prices to fall up to 15% as roughly 7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate reach the market and stocks rebuild is a bearish supply and sentiment signal dated the day before the drop.
Rabobank's April 24 outlook for phosphate prices to fall up to 15% as stocks rebuild and about 7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate may reach the market is a bearish supply and sentiment signal that fits the DAP drop.
Rabobank's forecast of rebuilding stocks, up to 15% further phosphate price declines and a potential ~7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate reaching the market shifted supply expectations and sentiment bearishly.
Rabobank's forecast of further phosphate price declines and an expected ~7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate reaching the market suggest supply-driven bearish sentiment, though the timing precedes the move by two days and the size of the drop is far greater than a gradual forecast implies.
