Some Chinese soybean importers and processors are seeking to cancel deals for U.S. cargoes for December and January shipment after crush margins turned negative following a steep Chicago futures rally. Traders say the move targets buyers who purchased cargoes without locking in futures prices.
It is described as the first sign of slowing Chinese demand after a five-month buying spree.
Cancellations would reduce near-term U.S. export demand and could weigh on soybean and meal prices, though soybean meal demand from the crush sector is the key link. Negative crush margins suggest Chinese demand may soften after the recent price surge.
在过去 803 次看跌的贸易事件之后,大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.0%(51% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.7% 至 +1.7%),20 个交易日内为 +0.9%。
在过去 384 次看跌的贸易事件之后,豆粕 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.2%(47% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.7% 至 +1.6%),20 个交易日内为 -0.5%。
在过去 81 次中性的贸易事件之后,豆油 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.3%(56% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.6% 至 +1.8%),20 个交易日内为 +0.9%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。