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Credit Suisse and most analysts expected the Banco Central do Brasil to raise its policy rate by 100bps at its August 4 meeting. Credit Suisse said a hawkish stance with forward guidance for further 100bps hikes would support the real.
It kept a near-term USD/BRL target of 5.00 and flagged political and fiscal risks.
Expected aggressive rate hikes widen Brazil's carry advantage and tend to strengthen the real, which lowers the local-currency cost of dollar-priced feed imports. A stronger real can also encourage Brazilian exporters to sell grain more slowly.
octaafrica.net2021年8月4日在过去 213 次看跌的宏观事件之后，巴西雷亚尔(每 USD 的 BRL) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.2%（46% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.5% 至 +0.9%），20 个交易日内为 +0.2%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
