
Researchers from the NewGO programme at EFI interviewed commodity traders in the cocoa, palm oil and soy sectors about how they would respond to the proposed EU deforestation regulation. The key uncertainty is whether traders will apply EU standards across all operations or divert non-compliant volumes to other markets.
Market leakage could limit the rule's impact.
If non-compliant soy and palm oil are diverted to less regulated markets, EU prices could diverge from world prices. Feed buyers may see regional price gaps rather than a clear global move.
在过去 1,905 次政策事件之后,大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.1%(52% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +1.8%),20 个交易日内为 +0.2%。
在过去 734 次政策事件之后,豆粕 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.2%(46% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.9% 至 +1.6%),20 个交易日内为 -0.4%。
在过去 1,570 次政策事件之后,棕榈油 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%(54% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.1% 至 +1.6%),20 个交易日内为 +0.5%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。