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US soft red winter (SRW) wheat exports are set to surpass hard red winter (HRW) wheat for the first time, driven by a large purchase from China. HRW exports for 2023-24 are on track for all-time lows across 40 years of records despite larger HRW supplies.
Chinese buying concentrated on SRW supports Chicago wheat while HRW remains weak on poor export demand, widening the spread between the two classes. Buyers should expect SRW to hold firmer than HRW in the near term.
在过去 82 次看跌的贸易事件之后,小麦(HRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.3%(48% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -2.8% 至 +1.9%),20 个交易日内为 +0.1%。
在过去 431 次看涨的贸易事件之后,小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.0%(50% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.3% 至 +2.1%),20 个交易日内为 +0.5%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。