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DTN reports that La Niña is developing more slowly than in 2020, with Pacific cooling limited to a few small areas of up to 2 degrees Celsius below average. The Oceanic Niño Index for July-September was notably less negative than in 2020.
A slower, weaker La Niña reduces the likelihood of severe South American and US drought, which is a modest bearish factor for grain and oilseed risk premiums.
在过去 357 次看跌的天气事件之后,玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.3%(44% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -2.2% 至 +1.3%),20 个交易日内为 -0.5%。
在过去 363 次看跌的天气事件之后,大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.6%(42% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -2.5% 至 +1.1%),20 个交易日内为 -0.2%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。