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RaboResearch's semi-annual fertilizer outlook projects a shift to tougher affordability in the second half of 2025, with its affordability index turning negative in January. Restricted Chinese exports are limiting phosphate tonnage, which is also affecting nitrogen markets.
Negative affordability and constrained phosphate supply point to elevated fertilizer prices, and eventual demand cuts from weaker farmer purchasing power could later soften input prices.
在过去 66 次看涨的报告事件之后,DAP 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 0.0%(41% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -0.6% 至 +0.7%),20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
在过去 76 次看涨的报告事件之后,尿素 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 0.0%(49% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -2.2% 至 +2.9%),20 个交易日内为 -0.3%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。