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The European Commission raised its EU soft wheat production forecast to 132.6 million tonnes from 128.1 million and its export estimate to 30.1 million. Russia's Rostov region moved to a federal state of emergency over widespread crop failure.
Argentina's 2024/25 soybean exports were estimated at 10.5 million tonnes after export taxes were suspended.
A larger EU crop and steady Russian and Argentine exports add supply to global wheat markets, while Rostov's crop failure is a localized offset that limits the downside.
blog.sizov.reportAndrey Sizov2025年9月29日在过去 1,006 次看跌的报告事件之后，小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.0%（50% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.6% 至 +1.8%），20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
在过去 563 次中性的报告事件之后，大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.1%（48% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.7% 至 +1.6%），20 个交易日内为 -0.1%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
