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Research from Farmdoc shows that soybean oil and palm oil prices have moved together less closely since 2020. Their price gap now diverges more often and for longer periods.
The authors attribute this to biofuel-driven shocks that are becoming more regional or national.
Weaker co-movement means soyoil and palm oil can no longer be priced as close substitutes, so buyers should expect wider and more persistent spreads. Regional biofuel policy will increasingly drive which oil is cheaper.
agriculture.comFarmdoc2025年12月29日在过去 196 次中性的政策事件之后，豆油 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.1%（52% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.6% 至 +2.0%），20 个交易日内为 -0.5%。
在过去 513 次中性的政策事件之后，棕榈油 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 0.0%（50% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.6% 至 +1.4%），20 个交易日内为 -0.1%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
