
Urea futures rose to as high as $684 per tonne, the highest since October 2022, and are more than 70% higher this year. The rally reflects Middle East war disruption to Strait of Hormuz flows, a gas price spike, plant shutdowns in India and Bangladesh, and tighter export restrictions from China and Russia.
Combined supply restrictions and pre-planting demand are pushing fertilizer costs sharply higher, which raises production costs for feed grain and oilseed growers and supports corn prices over the spring season.
在过去 205 次看涨的地缘政治事件之后,尿素 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.4%(53% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -2.1% 至 +3.0%),20 个交易日内为 -0.4%。
在过去 323 次看涨的地缘政治事件之后,玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.5%(57% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.5% 至 +2.9%),20 个交易日内为 +0.9%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
Urea futures hit the highest level since Oct 2022 on Hormuz disruption, gas spike, Asian plant shutdowns and Chinese/Russian export curbs, which is the supply-shock backdrop for the sharp one-day jump, though it predates 3/31 by a week.