Oil settled higher on June 29 after US and Iran strikes tested their interim peace deal, with Brent up $1.16 to $73.15 and WTI up $1.52 to $70.75. Crude shipments through Hormuz reached their highest since the war began, though traffic is not fully recovered.
Renewed strikes add a risk premium, but the recovery in Hormuz flows caps energy prices, which keeps diesel and fertilizer costs easing. Market-level commentary with no decisive new supply shock.
在过去 60 次中性的地缘政治事件之后,原油(WTI) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.9%(43% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -4.7% 至 +2.3%),20 个交易日内为 -1.9%。
在过去 63 次中性的地缘政治事件之后,原油(Brent) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.5%(44% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -4.4% 至 +2.6%),20 个交易日内为 -2.7%。
在过去 327 次地缘政治事件之后,ULSD / 柴油 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +1.0%(54% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -3.9% 至 +7.5%),20 个交易日内为 +0.4%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。