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USD/BRL traded near 5.09 in mid-July, leaving the real about 8% stronger than a year earlier. A 25% additional US tariff on non-exempt Brazilian imports takes effect July 22, with coffee, beef, orange juice and some energy products exempt.
The article says the Selic rate at 14.25% should limit the immediate currency impact.
The tariff could hit Brazilian export demand and weaken the real if it spreads to capital flows or the rate outlook, which would make Brazilian exports cheaper for other buyers. Exemptions for beef and coffee limit the direct effect on agricultural trade.
ebc.comCharon N.2026年7月16日在过去 16 次看涨的贸易事件之后，巴西雷亚尔(每 USD 的 BRL) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.3%（44% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +1.9%），20 个交易日内为 +0.9%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
