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SovEcon estimates Russia harvested 87.2 million tonnes of wheat in 2025, up from 82.6 million last year, with 2025-26 exports forecast at 43.4 million tonnes. Exports were slow in July–September at 11 million tonnes but are accelerating, with October estimated at 4.7–5.2 million tonnes.
Black Sea FOB values have been trending higher, and weather and river infrastructure bottlenecks are expected from late October.
A large Russian crop and expected export pickup add supply, but rising FOB values and winter logistics risks could firm wheat prices in the near term.
producer.comSean Pratt2025年10月3日在过去 224 次中性的天气事件之后，小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.1%（46% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +1.5%），20 个交易日内为 +0.4%。
在过去 29 次中性的天气事件之后，小麦(HRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.6%（52% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.9% 至 +2.3%），20 个交易日内为 -0.7%。
历史可比事件尚不足，暂无法给出历史解读。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
