
Folha reports that El Niño could delay grain planting, reduce harvests and disrupt livestock farming in Brazil in the second half of 2026. NOAA puts the probability of a very strong El Niño at 81%.
Effects will vary by region, with drought risk in the North and Northeast and flooding risk in the South.
Delayed soybean planting in the Central-West could narrow the safrinha corn window and reduce yields, supporting soybean and corn prices. Drought risk in the north and northeast could also raise feed costs for livestock producers.
在过去 1,465 次看涨的天气事件之后,玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%(54% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +1.9%),20 个交易日内为 +0.9%。
在过去 1,079 次看涨的天气事件之后,大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.3%(54% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +2.0%),20 个交易日内为 +0.9%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。