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A study using weather, crop and price data from 1971 to 2019 finds that hot dry spells and excessive rain contributed to price increases for Midwest soybeans and corn at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. In extreme cases, the predicted market response to weather shocks was comparable to a 10% price increase.
The impact of excessively wet spells grew stronger in later decades.
The findings show that weather shocks in the Midwest can move corn and soybean prices sharply, which matters for feed cost planning when summer weather is poor. The effect of wet extremes appears to be growing.
nature.comCornejo, Magdalena, Merovich, Ezequiel, Merener, Nicolas2026年2月1日在过去 1,465 次看涨的天气事件之后，玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%（54% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +1.9%），20 个交易日内为 +0.9%。
在过去 1,079 次看涨的天气事件之后，大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.3%（54% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +2.0%），20 个交易日内为 +0.9%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
