
Brazilian equities and the real fell on Tuesday after the government raised taxes on banks and the chemical industry and cut them on diesel and cooking gas. The dollar rose about 2% against the real, reaching a three-month low for the currency despite a $1 billion central bank spot sale.
The Bovespa index fell as much as 2.7% intraday before recovering to a 1.3% loss by midday.
The tax changes raised doubts about Brazil's fiscal and economic direction, which pushed the real weaker and makes Brazilian exports cheaper in dollar terms. A cheaper real can support export selling of soy and corn, while the diesel tax cut lowers fuel costs for farm and freight operations.
在过去 12 次看涨的政策事件之后,巴西雷亚尔(每 USD 的 BRL) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +1.5%(58% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.1% 至 +2.0%),20 个交易日内为 +2.3%。
在过去 21 次看跌的政策事件之后,ULSD / 柴油 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -2.4%(38% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -6.5% 至 +4.7%),20 个交易日内为 -1.1%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
Tax changes (hikes on banks and chemicals, cuts on diesel and cooking gas) raised fiscal concerns and triggered real weakness and equity selling, contributing to the depreciation momentum, but the event is dated two days before the move.