◂ Linha do tempo do evento

24 de mai. de 2023CLIMAEUA

The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer

NOAA reports that El Niño signals strengthened in May 2023, with the likelihood of El Niño approaching 90% by summer. USDA's May forecast already assumed normal or favorable weather for record corn and soybean yields.

Forecasters say weather is the main risk to the new crop balance sheets.

POR QUE IMPORTA

El Niño often brings a weather shift to the US and other key grain regions, adding uncertainty to yield assumptions and supporting risk premiums in corn and soybean prices.

AFETAMilho▲Soja em grão▲Trigo (SRW)▲

FONTE
agweb.comTyne Morgan24 de mai. de 2023

Reação de preço e histórico

Milho▲altistaATÉ AGORA1d +1,0%5d -3,4%20d -0,1%

Após 1.465 eventos altista de clima passados, Milho subiu em mediana +0,2% em 5 sessões (54% de alta; metade central de -1,4% a +1,9%), e +0,9% em 20.

13 de mar. de 2026El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown - AgWeb+4,1%
21 de jan. de 2026Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer - AgWeb+0,8%
2 de out. de 2026Record El Niño Behind Historic Rains Stalling Harvest Across the U.S. - AgWeb-1,6%
19 de mai. de 2017El Niño again? This is why it’s hard to tell. | Climate Change+1,3%
14 de mai. de 2026US forecaster says El Nino has 82% chance of developing by July | Reuters-0,4%

Soja em grão▲altistaATÉ AGORA1d +0,2%5d -1,7%20d +13,5%

Após 1.079 eventos altista de clima passados, Soja em grão subiu em mediana +0,3% em 5 sessões (54% de alta; metade central de -1,4% a +2,0%), e +0,9% em 20.

13 de mar. de 2026El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown - AgWeb-3,7%
21 de jan. de 2026Timing of La Niña Exit, El Niño Entrance is Unclear, Raising Questions About Dryness for Spring and Summer - AgWeb+1,4%
2 de out. de 2026Record El Niño Behind Historic Rains Stalling Harvest Across the U.S. - AgWeb+0,3%
19 de mai. de 2017El Niño again? This is why it’s hard to tell. | Climate Change-0,6%
14 de mai. de 2026US forecaster says El Nino has 82% chance of developing by July | Reuters-1,3%

Trigo (SRW)▲altistaATÉ AGORA1d -0,4%5d -2,4%20d -2,7%

Após 1.072 eventos altista de clima passados, Trigo (SRW) subiu em mediana +0,2% em 5 sessões (55% de alta; metade central de -1,4% a +2,3%), e +0,3% em 20.

13 de mar. de 2026El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown - AgWeb-0,2%
14 de mar. de 2024US forecaster sees higher chance of La Nina conditions this summer | Reuters+0,4%
19 de mai. de 2017El Niño again? This is why it’s hard to tell. | Climate Change+3,0%
1 de jun. de 2026Record global temperatures possible as chance of a 'super El Niño' grows-2,6%
9 de mar. de 2017El Nino may arrive this summer and fall+0,7%

Variações do benchmark de cada commodity desde o último fechamento antes do evento. As leituras históricas agregam eventos passados do mesmo tipo; descrevem o que aconteceu, não o que vai acontecer. Não é recomendação de investimento.

Milho CORN · GP ▸

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Soja em grão SOY · GP ▸

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