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Brazilian equities and the real fell on Tuesday after the government raised taxes on banks and the chemical industry and cut them on diesel and cooking gas. The dollar rose about 2% against the real, reaching a three-month low for the currency despite a $1 billion central bank spot sale.
The Bovespa index fell as much as 2.7% intraday before recovering to a 1.3% loss by midday.
The tax changes raised doubts about Brazil's fiscal and economic direction, which pushed the real weaker and makes Brazilian exports cheaper in dollar terms. A cheaper real can support export selling of soy and corn, while the diesel tax cut lowers fuel costs for farm and freight operations.
brecorder.comReuters2 de mar. de 2021Após 12 eventos altista de política passados, Real brasileiro (BRL por USD) subiu em mediana +1,5% em 5 sessões (58% de alta; metade central de -1,1% a +2,0%), e +2,3% em 20.
Após 21 eventos baixista de política passados, ULSD / Diesel subiu em mediana -2,4% em 5 sessões (38% de alta; metade central de -6,5% a +4,7%), e -1,1% em 20.
Variações do benchmark de cada commodity desde o último fechamento antes do evento. As leituras históricas agregam eventos passados do mesmo tipo; descrevem o que aconteceu, não o que vai acontecer. Não é recomendação de investimento.
Tax changes (hikes on banks and chemicals, cuts on diesel and cooking gas) raised fiscal concerns and triggered real weakness and equity selling, contributing to the depreciation momentum, but the event is dated two days before the move.
