Corn sits in the lower third of its 52-week range at 449.5¢ while crude holds above $100 on Iran risk into next week's midterms

Grains were mixed and quiet: corn -0.4% to 449.5¢, soybean meal -0.2% to $328.5/st, soybeans +1.1% to 1,233.5¢, and wheat steadied after a ninth weekly loss. The bigger moves are outside the feed grains. Crude stays near five-month highs on reports of possible US strikes on Iran after Tuesday's midterms, hogs hit a contract low, and fishmeal sits at a 52-week high. Funds remain very long soymeal, which leaves the meal market exposed to liquidation.

Grains: corn cheap-ish, wheat still sliding

Corn at 449.5¢ is 34% of its 402–543 range and only +4.5% y/y. Export commitments are 28% of USDA's 3,300 mil bu vs a 40% five-year average, and last week's 51.3 mil bu was just under the 52.8 needed per week. SRW at 606¢ is headed for a ninth straight weekly loss and touched 593¼¢ Wednesday, despite firmer US export sales (1993, 2001). Oats are range-bound, with ample corn and barley limiting substitution demand (2013). With corn in the lower part of its range and exports lagging, buyers can extend coverage in steps rather than chase or wait for a sharp break.

Protein meals: SBM mid-range, fishmeal squeeze persists

Soybean meal at $328.5/st is 47% of its 52-week range and +4.1% y/y. SBM export commitments trail at 29% of USDA vs a 37% average, while soybean commitments run well ahead at 62% vs 51%. DCE meal is trading a tug-of-war at low levels, and a weaker Brazilian real is aiding Brazilian bean supply (2039). Fishmeal hit $2,916/mt in September, the top of its range and +11.9% m/m, and the crisis is expected to extend into 2027 (2058). That is driving interest in rendered poultry protein as a substitute (2057).

Fats & oils and DDGS

Soybean oil at 66.09¢/lb is +33.1% y/y, with USDA reporting biofuel use running above trend (2048). Palm oil printed a 52-week high of $1,180/mt in the September monthly series. Daily trade near MYR 4,669–4,700 is heading for a weekly loss on record Malaysian stocks of 3.51 mt (2060, 2063, 2064). Indonesian drought is a 2027 supply risk for palm (2065). USDA is close to a $1.5B ethanol deal with Mexico, which could support grind and DDGS availability over time (2076).

Livestock: hogs at contract low

Lean hogs closed at $69.8/cwt, a contract low, down 22.4% y/y and 5.4% over five sessions (z -2.8). Managed money holds a near-record short at the 1st percentile (2135), and export sales are improving but supplies are abundant (2132). Feeder cattle fell 3.0% Thursday (z -3.1) as cattle futures show signs of a pullback (2126). Weak hog margins may temper pork-sector feed demand.

Energy & macro

WTI traded around $102–104 Friday, with Brent near $116–118 and on track for a fourth monthly gain. Drivers are a Hormuz tanker attack, Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia, and a reported US strike window on Iran opening after the midterms (2145, 2149, 2152, 2154). Diesel at $4.687/gal (+88% y/y) keeps freight costs elevated, though Asian diesel eased on supply (2172). The dollar is near the top of its range, with possible pre-election position unwinding and a Fed expected to resume hikes after the vote (2177, 2178).

Positioning

As of Oct 20, managed money was net long 200,878 soymeal contracts (99th percentile) and 221,325 soybeans (97th percentile). Funds cut their corn net long by 82,002 to 164,423 and their soyoil long by 16,454. Crowded meal and bean longs raise the risk of a sharp pullback on any liquidation. That argues for keeping some meal needs open rather than locking in all coverage at mid-range prices.

Number of the day: 200,878

Managed money net long in soybean meal (99th percentile). With speculators near record long while meal trades only mid-range and exports lag, a fund exit could hand buyers better meal prices, but it could also mean volatility in either direction.

What to watch

• 2026-10-30: CFTC Commitments of Traders, 15:30 ET: is the corn long still shrinking, and are meal longs holding?
• 2026-11-02: USDA Crop Progress & Condition, 16:00 ET: harvest pace for corn and soybeans
• 2026-11-03: US midterm elections: reported Iran strike window afterward is a crude, diesel and freight risk
• 2026-11-04: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status, 10:30 ET: ethanol output as a read on corn grind and DDGS supply
• 2026-11-10: USDA WASDE: corn export estimate vs lagging 28% commitment pace