Soybean meal at $334.80 sits mid-range, but managed money holds a 99th-percentile net long, so the downside risk is a fund exit rather than fundamentals

Grains were quiet: corn edged up 0.2% to 452.5¢ and soybeans rose 0.6%, while meal slipped 0.3% and soyoil fell 1.1% as crude eased on Iran diplomacy. Speculators cut corn length sharply in the week to Oct 20, but stayed near record long in soybeans and meal. Energy remains elevated, keeping freight and fat costs high, while lean hogs hit a fresh 52-week low.

Corn and wheat

Corn at 452.5¢/bu is in the lower third of its 402–543¢ 52-week range (36%) and only 4.3% above a year ago. That level looks reasonable for extending coverage in stages, though nothing in today's data signals urgency. SRW (600.25¢) and HRW (642¢) were little changed and sit at 36% and 44% of their ranges, so wheat as a feed substitute offers no obvious discount to corn. Oats fell 1.8% to 347.5¢.

Protein meals, DDGS and aminos

SBM at $334.8/st is mid-range (54%) and up 8.5% year on year. In China, DDGS was steady (Heilongjiang 2,050–2,140 yuan/t) and feed mills there are buying hand-to-mouth with about 8 days of stock. Canola fell to C$783.60/t, its lowest since August, and Paris rapeseed also weakened. Fishmeal hit a 52-week high of $2,916/mt (+11.9% m/m), which favours plant proteins in rations. China lysine 70% softened to 4.25 yuan/kg on ample supply, while methionine makers halted offers to hold prices firm.

Fats and oils

Soyoil fell 1.1% to 64.83¢/lb but remains 29.2% above a year ago. Malaysian palm futures dropped for a fourth session to near MYR 4,600, a two-week low, on weaker rival oils, higher stocks and softer crude. The latest monthly palm price ($1,180/mt) was still at its 52-week high. MPOB-cited views expect palm to hold rangebound before firming in H1 2027, so near-term dips may be buying windows for fat users.

Livestock

Lean hogs fell 0.9% to $70.68/cwt, a fresh 52-week low and 22% below a year ago. Funds are at a 1st-percentile net short. That points to weak hog margins and possibly softer swine-feed demand. Live cattle rose 1.3% to $227.08, and the monthly chicken price is firm at $1.81/kg.

Energy and macro

WTI eased toward $101–102 and Brent toward about $114 on hopes of US–Iran talks, though Mideast strike risk limits the downside. Diesel at $4.687/gal is 88% above a year ago, so delivered-freight costs stay high. US natural gas is only $2.76, even as European TTF topped €100/MWh. The Fed held rates at 3.75–4.00%, and the broad dollar is near the top of its range at 121.32.

Positioning

Managed money cut its corn net long by 82,002 contracts to 164,423 (70th percentile) in the week to Oct 20. Funds remain heavily long soybeans (221,325, 97th percentile) and meal (200,878, 99th percentile). Crowded meal length raises the risk of a sharp drop if funds liquidate. Buyers may prefer scaled purchases over large forward commitments at current levels.

Number of the day: 99th percentile

Managed money net long in soybean meal (200,878 contracts). Speculative meal length is near a historical extreme while price sits mid-range, which leaves meal vulnerable to a fund-driven selloff and argues against chasing coverage.

What to watch

• 2026-10-29: USDA Export Sales, 08:30 ET: whether corn, soybean and meal demand holds after last week's 60.1M bu corn and 104.4M bu soybean net sales
• 2026-10-29: U.S. Drought Monitor, 08:30 ET
• 2026-10-30: CFTC Commitments of Traders, 15:30 ET: any reduction in record-high soybean meal length
• 2026-11-02: USDA Crop Progress & Condition, 16:00 ET: harvest pace