Feed price outlook, week of November 2, 2026: Canola Meal +6.2%, DDGS +3.1% by Feb 2027

Feedsoft's 1–6 month price forecasts for 31 feed commodities, with the median path, the 80% range and what is driving each market. Biggest expected moves: Canola Meal +6.2% and DDGS +3.1% over three months.

Natural Gas

The seasonal-pattern forecast (no futures curve) puts US natural gas, now at $2.84/mmbtu, slightly lower at a median of -2.8% in December, -10.4% by February and -8.4% by May, with the spread widening from -14.8%/+19.4% (P10/P90) at one month to -40.2%/+39.9% at six months. The downward tilt reflects a seasonal tendency rather than market pricing, so it carries limited weight against current events. Upside risk comes from the Middle East shipping crisis and U.S.-Iran escalation, which have pushed European gas above €100 and Asian LNG past $30, while a de-escalation that eases those prices would support the lower end of the range.

Barge Freight (St. Louis)

St. Louis barge freight, last at 31.91 $/mt, is forecast on seasonal patterns (no futures curve) to ease modestly at the median, about -4.1% in December, -7.3% by February and -17.1% by May, but the spread is wide (P10/P90 of -25.7%/+21.4% at 1M, -35.6%/+51.0% at 3M, and -51.3%/+31.7% at 6M), with upside skew in the near and mid term. The median decline reflects the usual seasonal tendency for rates to soften after the harvest-season peak. The main upside risk is continued low Mississippi water levels, which headlines say are already pushing freight rates higher, while a recovery in river levels would favor the downside; low-water stress on rivers in Europe and Argentina adds to the global logistics tightness.

Canola Meal

Canola meal at 404.10 $/mt is forecast to edge up about 0.9% by December (P50), rising to +6.2% by February and +7.3% by May, with the range widening from -3.4%/+5.5% at one month to -3.9%/+22.6% at six months. With no futures curve, the upward drift reflects only the seasonal tendency, so confidence falls sharply at longer horizons. Downside risk comes from Canada's higher 2026/27 canola ending stocks forecast, which is pressuring seed, oil and meal, plus uncertainty over the China tariff deal nearing its end; upside risk comes from the Peru fishmeal supply gap expected to last into 2027, which may push buyers toward alternative protein meals.

Urea

Urea at $480.98/mt is forecast by a seasonal pattern (no futures curve) to ease slightly, with medians of -2.4% in December, -5.8% by February and -3.8% by May, but the spread is wide and skews upward (P10/P90 of -16.3%/+12.4% at 1M, -33.4%/+25.3% at 3M and -29.8%/+56.8% at 6M). The modest downward median reflects typical seasonal softening rather than any market-implied signal, so confidence is low. Upside risks come from the Iran war and Hormuz disruption, with Middle East fertiliser exports down 70% per Kpler and sulfur shortages lifting phosphate prices, plus European gas above €100 raising production costs; downside would come if supply routes reopen and energy prices retreat.

DAP

DAP's latest price is 790.18 $/mt, and the seasonal-pattern forecast (no futures curve) points to a mild easing: the median is -1.0% in December, -5.1% by February and -4.5% by May. The spread is wide and widens with horizon, from -6.8% to +8.3% at one month to -28.7% to +23.2% at six months, so the seasonal tendency carries low conviction. Upside risks come from the Hormuz blockade, with Middle East fertiliser exports down 70%, Hormuz shipments at zero for a second month and a sulfur shortage lifting phosphate prices, plus Mosaic's warning of 45 Mt supply against 75 Mt demand. The main downside risk is easing, as the World Bank expects fertiliser prices to fall in 2027.

Ocean Grain Freight

Ocean grain freight, last at $53.39/mt, is forecast to stay roughly flat to slightly lower on a seasonal pattern (no futures curve), with medians of -0.7% in December, -5.0% in February and -2.3% in May. The spread widens with horizon, from -7.7%/+6.4% (P10/P90) at one month to -22.4%/+21.0% at six months, so the median points to little change while uncertainty is large. Upside risks come from the Black Sea disruption pushing wheat buyers to alternative origins, Russia's focus on Ukrainian grain shipments, and a diesel supply crunch the IEA says could last into next year, plus the Middle East shipping crisis; the downside depends on these easing, which would let the seasonal softening dominate.

Phosphate Rock

Phosphate rock, last at $170.00/mt, is forecast by a seasonal pattern (no futures curve) to ease modestly, with median changes of -3.4% in December, -5.0% by February and -1.8% by May 2027, while the spread widens sharply from -6.5%/+2.4% (P10/P90) at one month to -25.3%/+39.0% at six months. The soft central path reflects seasonal tendency only and does not incorporate the current supply news, so the upside tail is the more notable risk. Headlines point up through a sulfur shortage tied to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, Mosaic's warning of 45 Mt of phosphate output against 75 Mt demand, and collapsing Chinese fertilizer exports, while China's waiver of phosphate rock export quotas through 2027 and the end of the Western Sahara mission add uncertainty to trade flows.

Feeder Cattle

Feeder cattle, last at 337.77 $/cwt, are forecast roughly flat next month (P50 -0.1%, range -5.6% to +4.2%), then slightly softer at a median of -4.9% by February and -4.2% by May 2027, with the spread widening to -16.1% to +9.1% by May. With no futures curve, this reflects the seasonal tendency alone, not a market-implied view. Upside risk comes from tight supplies ("The Cattle Supply Crunch Isn't Letting Up") and from screwworm cases in New Mexico and Arizona, which could disrupt trade ahead of the port reopening, while a quick containment or the reopening itself would favor the downside.

Milk (Class III)

Class III milk, last at 16.89 $/cwt, is forecast by seasonal pattern (no futures curve) to ease modestly, with a median of -3.8% in December, -4.7% by February and -3.8% by May. The spread widens with time, from -12.8% to +3.8% at one month to -17.7% to +20.9% at six months, so the upside tail grows while the median stays slightly lower. Upside risks include heat-reduced Midwest output, USDA's lowered 2026-27 production forecasts, and avian flu spreading in Washington dairy herds (30 infected), while the downside risk is strong U.S. production growth cited in the headlines.

TSP

The seasonal-pattern forecast (no futures curve) points to TSP easing slightly from 690.00 $/mt, with medians of -1.3% in December, -3.4% by February and -2.5% by May, so the seasonal tendency is mildly softer. The spread is wide and widens with horizon, from -5.6% to +6.8% at 1M to -26.2% to +23.3% at 6M, which shows low conviction beyond the median. Upside risk comes from the Hormuz-related sulfur shortage, with Middle East fertiliser exports down 70% (Kpler), shipments at zero for a second month and global phosphate output possibly falling to 45 mln tons; the end of the Western Sahara mission adds trade uncertainty that could cut either way.

DDGS

DDGS at 225.70 $/mt is forecast to edge higher on a seasonal pattern (no futures curve), with the median at +3.0% for December, +3.1% for February and +2.3% for May; the range widens from -4.6% to +10.8% at one month to -15.6% to +35.0% at six months, so the upside tail grows much faster than the median. Downside risk comes from the surprise USDA crop estimate that sent corn to its biggest drop since 2023, which could pull co-product values lower. Upside risk comes from firm export and ethanol demand, including strong August DDGS exports and the pending $1.5 billion USDA ethanol deal with Mexico.

Sorghum

Sorghum at $186.23/mt is forecast to edge higher on a seasonal pattern (no futures curve), with the median up about 1.0% in December, 2.9% by February and 2.1% by May, though the range widens sharply from -5.5% to +8.3% at one month to -13.1% to +25.9% at six months. The upside skew reflects seasonal tendency rather than a market-signaled curve, so confidence falls further out. Headlines point to downside risk from a bigger U.S. corn supply (USDA raising ending stocks to 47 million tons after a yield surprise) and to upside risk if China's slow buying of US farm goods shifts or if India's rice export ban lifts grain prices.

Corn

The futures curve implies corn near flat at about $214.75/mt for December (P50 +0.0%, range -5.0% to +6.3%), edging up to +2.0% by February and +4.7% by May, a modest upward slope in the curve. The spread widens sharply with horizon, with the 6-month P90 at +31.2% versus a P10 of -9.6%, so upside tail risk is much larger than downside. Upside risks include Black Sea attacks threatening Ukraine and Russia's harvest, a 70% plunge in Middle East fertiliser exports, and a rally in wheat and soy on acreage misses, while downside pressure comes from the USDA yield surprise that sent corn to an 8-week low, a rate hike to 3.75%-4.00%, and any demand lift from the US-China tariff truce and commodity deals that could offset it.

Sunflower Meal

Sunflower meal at 361.65 $/mt is forecast to ease about 3% in December (P50), then recover to +1.9% by February and +2.6% by May, with the range widening from -9.8%/+3.0% at one month to -11.1%/+15.8% at six months. This is a seasonal-pattern forecast with no futures curve, so it reflects typical seasonal tendencies rather than market-implied pricing. Upside risk comes from Black Sea attacks threatening Ukrainian and Russian harvests, while downside risk comes from expanding Argentine sunflowerseed output and crushing, and from weaker Brazilian soymeal prices in the broader meal complex.

ULSD / Diesel

Seasonal-pattern forecasts (no futures curve) put ULSD slightly below the latest $4.62/gal, with medians of -2.3% in 1M, -1.8% in 3M and -4.3% in 6M, but the spread widens sharply, from -11.6%/+8.0% at 1M to -26.8%/+48.6% at 6M, so upside tail risk grows with the horizon. The mild downward median reflects typical seasonal softening rather than any market-implied curve signal. Headlines point to upside risk from oil at six-month highs after Hormuz attacks, a possible U.S. diesel export ban warning to France and Germany, and Russia keeping most diesel exports banned through January, while any easing of Iran tensions would be the main downside risk.

Wheat (SRW)

The futures curve implies SRW wheat holding near the latest 263.96 $/mt in December (P50 +0.0%, range -3.8% to +4.0%), then edging up to +1.6% by February and +3.4% by May, with the P10-P90 spread widening from about 8 points at 1M to nearly 30 points at 6M. The gentle upward slope reflects a modest carry in the market-implied curve rather than a forecast of a sharp move, and the widening range shows growing uncertainty further out. Upside risks come from Black Sea attacks threatening Ukrainian and Russian harvests and grain shipments, and from wheat rallying on acreage misses, while downside pressure could come from bearish USDA reports that have pushed corn lower and could weigh on feed grains more broadly.

Lean Hogs

Lean hogs at 63.71 $/cwt are forecast roughly flat over the next month (P50 -0.5%, range -8.2% to +10.9%), then drifting higher to +1.5% by February and +8.0% by May 2027, with the spread widening sharply (P10 -12.0% to P90 +40.3% at 6M); with no futures curve, this reflects the seasonal tendency rather than a market-implied path. Downside risks come from weak pork demand, contract-low hogs in mid-October, a 25% drop in the pork cutout, and Rabobank's warning of continued pressure, as well as an uncertain 2027 global pork outlook. Upside risks include USDA commodity purchases supporting pork and poultry and tight supply with firm demand lifting China's pork prices in October.

Crude Oil (WTI)

The seasonal forecast sees WTI roughly flat from the latest 102.36 $/bbl, with P50 at -1.4% in December, +1.4% by February and -0.6% by May, but the range widens sharply from -10.7% to +7.8% at 1M to -21.3% to +37.4% at 6M, with the skew increasingly to the upside. This is based on a seasonal pattern with no futures curve, so it reflects typical monthly tendencies rather than market pricing of supply risk. Headlines point to upside risk from the Hormuz tanker attack, which pushed Brent near $117-118 and oil up 14% in October to a six-month high, and the possibility of fresh US attacks after the midterms, while any progress in Iran peace efforts would be the main downside risk, since it could unwind the recent spike.

Potash (KCl)

Potash is at 367.50 $/mt, and the seasonal-pattern forecast (no futures curve) puts the median essentially flat: -0.6% in December, -1.4% by February and +0.2% by May. The spread widens sharply with horizon, from -8.8%/+5.6% (P10/P90) at one month to -31.3%/+33.9% at six months, so the flat median reflects a seasonal tendency with little directional signal rather than a firm view. Headlines point to downside risk if the US push for Lithuania to reopen Klaipėda to Belarusian potash leads to more supply, though Belarus has rejected the US deal claims, so the outcome is uncertain and any easing could be slow or fail to materialize.

Crude Oil (Brent)

Brent at $116.26/bbl is forecast roughly flat, with a median of -1.2% in December, +1.2% by February and -1.1% by May, but the spread widens sharply from -10.8%/+7.8% (P10/P90) at one month to -22.3%/+34.6% at six months. With no futures curve available, the forecast rests on seasonal tendency alone, so the flat median reflects little seasonal pull and the wide, upward-skewed range reflects high uncertainty after a 14% October surge to six-month highs. Upside risks are the Hormuz tanker attacks that threaten Iran peace efforts and the prospect of fresh US attacks after the midterm elections, while a de-escalation could drive prices back down toward the lower end of the range, which would also lower energy-linked feed and freight costs.

Soybeans

The futures curve implies soybeans roughly flat to slightly firmer from 453.69 $/mt, with medians of +0.4% at 1M, +1.2% at 3M and +2.3% at 6M, which points to a mild upward-sloping (carry) curve rather than a strong directional call. The spread widens with horizon, from -5.4% to +6.3% at 1M to -10.4% to +28.1% at 6M, with a heavy upside tail. Upside risks include the US-China tariff truce and China ending levies on US farm goods, which could lift export demand, and the record soy contract rally alongside wheat on acreage misses; downside risks include the record USDA corn yield forecast pressuring grains broadly and a Fed rate hike to 3.75%-4.00%.

Wheat (HRW)

HRW wheat at 236.81 $/mt is priced by the futures curve to hold flat at the median for December (+0.0%), edging up to +1.0% by February and +2.1% by May, a mild upward slope that implies modest carry rather than a directional call. The spread widens sharply with horizon, from -7.3%/+9.0% (P10/P90) at one month to -14.0%/+30.4% at six months, so upside tail risk is notably larger than downside. Headlines point both ways: the Black Sea disruption (now in its third month) and production concerns could push prices higher, while hopes for Black Sea easing and a stronger Russian export outlook have pulled Chicago wheat toward multi-month lows.

Live Cattle

Live cattle at 225.72 $/cwt are forecast to be roughly flat, with the median at +0.6% in December, -1.0% by February and -1.8% by May, while the range widens from -4.9%/+4.6% at one month to -16.5%/+7.0% at six months, tilting toward the downside. This comes from a seasonal pattern only, with no futures curve to anchor it, so the wide spread reflects uncertainty rather than a market-implied path. Upside risk comes from tight supplies ("The Cattle Supply Crunch Isn't Letting Up") and screwworm detections in New Mexico and Arizona ahead of the port reopening, which could disrupt movements and supply, while any easing of those pressures would leave room for the seasonal softening.

Rough Rice

Rough rice at 394.74 $/mt is forecast roughly flat over the next month (P50 -0.0%, range -5.5% to +4.6%), with a mild seasonal tilt higher to +0.9% at 3M and +3.5% at 6M, though the spread widens sharply to -13.1% to +22.8% by May 2027. This comes from a seasonal pattern only, with no futures curve, so the widening range reflects uncertainty rather than market-priced direction. Upside risks come from India's reported export ban, crop damage and harvest delays, a smaller U.S. crop, and rising Vietnamese export prices, while Thailand's reported price plunge and cost squeeze points to a possible downside offset.

Fishmeal

Fishmeal at $2,916/mt is forecast roughly flat, with the median at +0.7% in December 2026, -0.8% in February 2027 and +0.2% in May 2027, while the spread widens from -1.6% to +3.9% at one month to -9.1% to +10.6% at six months. With no futures curve, the forecast rests on seasonal tendency alone, which points to little net change and growing uncertainty over time. Upside risk comes from Peru's cancelled second anchovy season (79% juvenile catch) and El Niño weakening the Humboldt Current, which have kept prices near record highs, while the downside risk is a pullback from those record levels if supply conditions improve or demand in China eases.

Soybean Oil

The futures curve points to flat soybean oil near $1,506/mt over the next month (P50 +0.0%), edging to +0.8% at 3 months and +1.7% at 6 months, which implies a mild contango rather than a strong directional call. The spread widens sharply with horizon, from -8.4%/+8.1% at 1M to -14.1%/+55.7% at 6M, so upside tail risk is much larger than downside. Upside risks come from surging crude (Brent above $116) on Hormuz and Iran supply fears, which can lift vegetable oil values, and from El Nino threatening palm oil supply and the soy oil premium; downside pressure could come from Canada's higher 2026/27 canola ending stocks forecast weighing on oilseed and oil markets.

Palm Oil

Palm oil is forecast to hold near the latest $1,145.25/mt, with the median flat at -0.0% in December and drifting to -4.0% by May 2027, while the P10-P90 range widens from -6.6%/+9.8% at one month to -21.8%/+20.1% at six months. With no futures curve, this reflects only the seasonal tendency, which leans softer into the spring. Upside risks come from Indonesia's November export cut and the export shake-up threatening supply from 2027, plus El Nino persisting into early 2027 and Brent above $116 on Middle East escalation, all of which could push prices toward the P90.

Barley

Barley is forecast to hold near the latest 227.52 $/mt, with the median at +0.5% in December, -0.7% by February and -0.4% by May 2027, while the P10-P90 range widens from -3.8%/+6.0% at one month to -20.1%/+13.1% at six months. This flat median reflects a seasonal-pattern method with no futures curve, so it signals no clear trend and growing uncertainty further out. Upside risks come from Black Sea disruption, with Russian grain exports reported to have collapsed fourfold and attacks threatening Ukraine and Russia's harvests, plus a strengthening El Nino that may persist into early 2027; India's rice export ban could also add to grain-market tightness and inflation concerns.

Chicken

Chicken is forecast to hold near the latest 1.81 $/kg in the next month (P50 +0.2%, range -6.0% to +7.2%), with a modest seasonal upward tilt later (P50 +0.6% at 3M, +5.7% at 6M) and a widening spread, up to -14.0% to +31.1% by May 2027. With no futures curve, this reflects only the seasonal pattern, so the upside skew at longer horizons signals uncertainty rather than a priced-in trend. Upside risks come from spreading avian flu, including nearly one million Illinois chickens culled, increased Midwest and West Coast activity, and the Dutch nationwide poultry lockdown, while USDA purchases add support; downside risk is less clear in the headlines, though any easing of outbreaks would be consistent with the lower P10 outcomes.

Oats

Oats at 239.92 $/mt are forecast roughly flat, with a median of about -1% at 1M, 3M and 6M, based on a seasonal pattern rather than a futures curve. The spread widens with horizon, from -10.2% to +8.8% at 1M to -20.5% to +22.9% at 6M, and the upside tail is larger than the downside beyond 1M. Upside risks include broader grain price strength (the World Bank sees grain prices up 14% in 2026) and wet weather disrupting ag trade, while the raised US oats production forecast points to downside pressure.

Soybean Meal

The futures curve implies soybean meal is little changed from 397.50 $/mt, with a median of +0.0% in December 2026, +0.5% in February 2027 and +1.9% by May 2027, which points to a nearly flat, slightly upward-sloping market. The spread widens with the horizon, from -5.5% to +7.6% at 1M to -12.4% to +20.0% at 6M, so the upside tail is larger than the downside. Upside risks come from fishmeal near record highs after Peru canceled its second anchovy season, which could push buyers toward soybean meal as a protein substitute, and from soy futures posting their biggest gain on record alongside a wheat rally. The US-China tariff truce and commodity deals are a further factor, with their effect on soy demand and prices still unclear.

Forecasts blend futures curves, where they exist, with seasonal patterns. The range runs from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the forecast distribution. The method and public track record are on the Feedsoft forecasts page.