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2026. 4. 17.지정학중동

Oil prices: Oil tumbles more than 10% as Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open

US crude futures fell nearly 12% to $83.85 a barrel and Brent lost 9% to $90.38 on Friday after Iran's foreign minister declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open during the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. Araghchi said vessels must follow a coordinated route set by Iranian authorities.

Trump welcomed the move in a social media post.

중요한 이유

The reopening removes a major supply disruption, so crude prices drop sharply. Lower energy costs reduce diesel and freight expenses for feed producers and may ease fertilizer prices over time.

영향 대상대두▼옥수수▼원유 (WTI)▼원유 (Brent)▼ULSD / 디젤▼

출처 2건
cnbc.comLee Ying Shan, Christina Cheddar Berk2026. 4. 17.
profarmer.comBill Watts2026. 4. 17.

가격 반응 및 이력

대두▼하락현재까지1d +0.3%5d -0.3%20d +0.9%

과거 하락 지정학 이벤트 53건 이후, 대두은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.3% 변동(상승 47%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.9%~+1.2%), 20거래일 동안 +1.0%.

2026. 8. 4.CBOT grains, soybeans fall as oil drops on Iran hopes | Stock Market News-0.9%
2026. 4. 1.Grain, Oilseed Prices Fall as Traders Look for End to Iran War - Bloomberg-0.8%
2026. 7. 27.Soybeans and corn fall more than 2% as oil drops, wheat also down | ZAWYA-6.1%
2026. 6. 16.Corn, Wheat And Soy All See Prices Drop On Prospect Of US-Iran Deal | ESM Magazine-0.2%
2026. 7. 28.Corn Futures Slide as Oil Selloff Triggers Profit-Taking-3.3%

옥수수▼하락현재까지1d +0.0%5d +1.4%20d +2.4%

과거 하락 지정학 이벤트 87건 이후, 옥수수은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.1% 변동(상승 51%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.5%~+2.1%), 20거래일 동안 +0.3%.

2026. 8. 4.CBOT grains, soybeans fall as oil drops on Iran hopes | Stock Market News-1.3%
2026. 4. 1.Grain, Oilseed Prices Fall as Traders Look for End to Iran War - Bloomberg-1.7%
2026. 7. 27.Soybeans and corn fall more than 2% as oil drops, wheat also down | ZAWYA-4.8%
2026. 6. 16.Corn, Wheat And Soy All See Prices Drop On Prospect Of US-Iran Deal | ESM Magazine-0.8%
2022. 3. 14.Ahead of the Open | March 14, 2022 - Pro Farmer+1.1%

원유 (WTI)▼하락현재까지1d -11.1%5d +2.3%20d +7.9%

과거 하락 지정학 이벤트 255건 이후, 원유 (WTI)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -2.4% 변동(상승 31%; 중간 50% 범위 -7.0%~+1.7%), 20거래일 동안 -5.0%.

2026. 4. 17.Oil settles down 9% after Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open | Reuters+2.3%
2026. 4. 17.Oil price drops below $90 a barrel after Iran says strait of Hormuz is open | Oil | The Guardian+2.3%
2026. 3. 23.Oil Prices Fall More Than 10% After Trump Postpones Iran Strikes+2.2%
2026. 3. 8.Oil prices fall as Trump weighs taking over Strait of Hormuz+8.5%
2026. 5. 5.Oil prices fall 4% as fragile US-Iran ceasefire holds, two ships pass through Strait of Hormuz | Reuters-7.6%

원유 (Brent)▼하락현재까지1d -12.3%5d +1.3%20d +0.6%

과거 하락 지정학 이벤트 250건 이후, 원유 (Brent)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -3.1% 변동(상승 36%; 중간 50% 범위 -7.9%~+1.6%), 20거래일 동안 -5.5%.

2026. 4. 17.Oil settles down 9% after Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open | Reuters+1.3%
2026. 4. 17.Oil price drops below $90 a barrel after Iran says strait of Hormuz is open | Oil | The Guardian+1.3%
2026. 3. 23.Oil Prices Fall More Than 10% After Trump Postpones Iran Strikes+1.5%
2026. 3. 8.Oil prices fall as Trump weighs taking over Strait of Hormuz+9.5%
2026. 5. 5.Oil prices fall 4% as fragile US-Iran ceasefire holds, two ships pass through Strait of Hormuz | Reuters-9.6%

각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

연관 가격 변동

원유 (Brent)-16.1%5개 기간 · 2026. 4. 20.까지-3.2σ
Iran declaring Hormuz open on April 17 drove Brent down about 9% in one session, the main driver of the 5-day drop through April 20 via restored supply flows.
원유 (Brent)-15.4%1개 기간 · 2026. 4. 17.까지-3.7σ
Reports on the same-day Hormuz opening announcement detail the Brent fall to about $90 and the WTI slide, matching the move's timing and mechanism.

대두 SOY · GP ▸

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옥수수 CORN · GP ▸

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