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Wheat futures rallied sharply on July 10 after Russia reportedly halted shipping through the Don-Azov Channel following a Ukrainian attack on the Sea of Azov. Russia also banned diesel exports after refinery damage, lifting heating oil futures more than 11% during the week and supporting soybean oil.
September SRW wheat hit a six-week high of $6.40 1/4 and HRW reached $6.76 1/4.
Threats to Russian wheat export flows and a diesel export ban tighten supply and lift energy costs, supporting grain and soybean oil prices. Feed buyers face higher wheat and fuel-linked costs while the conflict persists.
profarmer.comBill Watts2026. 7. 10.과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 361건 이후, 밀 (SRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.7% 변동(상승 58%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.4%~+3.7%), 20거래일 동안 +1.3%.
과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 94건 이후, 밀 (HRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.1% 변동(상승 50%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.7%~+5.8%), 20거래일 동안 +0.1%.
과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 110건 이후, 대두유은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +1.8% 변동(상승 65%; 중간 50% 범위 -0.7%~+3.6%), 20거래일 동안 -0.4%.
과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 250건 이후, ULSD / 디젤은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +1.7% 변동(상승 58%; 중간 50% 범위 -3.6%~+8.7%), 20거래일 동안 +0.9%.
각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.
Russia reportedly halted Don-Azov shipping on July 10 and September HRW reached $6.76, which started the rally through a trade-flow and war-premium mechanism.
Russia's diesel export ban and refinery damage lifted heating oil more than 11% during the week, which raises biofuel feedstock demand and input-cost parity and directly supported soybean oil in the 5-day window.
Russian diesel export ban and an 11% weekly jump in heating oil supported soybean oil through energy and biofuel-linked input cost channels, alongside a wheat rally that lifted the grains complex.
