◂ 이벤트 타임라인

2026. 7. 15.지정학흑해

Wheat Skyrockets as Black Sea Exports Threatened, Pulling up Corn and Soybeans

Wheat futures rose 30 to 35 cents early on July 15 as Russia and Ukraine attacks on shipping escalated in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea. Analysts reported Russian July exports could fall 13% to 20% with shipping nearly stopped.

Corn and soybeans were also higher early in the session.

중요한 이유

Reduced Russian grain shipments, the world's top wheat exporter, raise global export risk and support wheat and grain prices. Analysts see further upside if disruptions last.

영향 대상밀 (SRW)▲밀 (HRW)▲옥수수▲대두▲

출처 1건
agweb.comMichelle Rook2026. 7. 15.

가격 반응 및 이력

밀 (SRW)▲상승현재까지1d +1.2%5d +4.5%20d +0.7%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 361건 이후, 밀 (SRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.7% 변동(상승 58%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.4%~+3.7%), 20거래일 동안 +1.3%.

2026. 8. 1.Wheat Soars, Pulling up Corn and Soybeans: Outside Markets See Fed Fallout-0.8%
2026. 8. 27.Wheat rallies as Black Sea exports stall - Farmers Weekly+4.0%
2026. 10. 1.War Throttles Black Sea Grain Exports, Threatening Food Supplies-2.9%
2026. 7. 20.Wheat Climbs on Black Sea Risk, Soybeans Firm as China Returns+3.1%
2022. 10. 31.Wheat up 6% after Russia quits Black Sea pact; corn, soy firm | Reuters-5.6%

밀 (HRW)▲상승현재까지1d +8.4%5d +10.4%20d +5.3%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 94건 이후, 밀 (HRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.1% 변동(상승 50%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.7%~+5.8%), 20거래일 동안 +0.1%.

2026. 8. 1.Wheat Soars, Pulling up Corn and Soybeans: Outside Markets See Fed Fallout+0.9%
2026. 7. 20.Wheat Climbs on Black Sea Risk, Soybeans Firm as China Returns+1.8%
2022. 10. 31.Wheat up 6% after Russia quits Black Sea pact; corn, soy firm | Reuters+3.1%
2026. 8. 31.Wheat: Black Sea risks are driving up wheat prices-5.0%
2026. 7. 29.Wheat futures rise on Black Sea export disruptions By Investing.com-2.7%

옥수수▲상승현재까지1d +1.9%5d +3.2%20d -0.3%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 323건 이후, 옥수수은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.5% 변동(상승 57%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.5%~+2.9%), 20거래일 동안 +0.9%.

2026. 8. 1.Wheat Soars, Pulling up Corn and Soybeans: Outside Markets See Fed Fallout-0.6%
2026. 8. 27.Wheat rallies as Black Sea exports stall - Farmers Weekly+0.5%
2026. 10. 1.War Throttles Black Sea Grain Exports, Threatening Food Supplies-1.2%
2022. 10. 31.Wheat up 6% after Russia quits Black Sea pact; corn, soy firm | Reuters-2.2%
2022. 3. 21.Wheat rebounds on Black Sea supply worries; corn, soybeans rise 1% - Markets - Business Recorder+1.5%

대두▲상승현재까지1d -0.4%5d +1.0%20d -4.9%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 72건 이후, 대두은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.4% 변동(상승 60%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.0%~+2.5%), 20거래일 동안 -1.0%.

2026. 8. 1.Wheat Soars, Pulling up Corn and Soybeans: Outside Markets See Fed Fallout-1.3%
2026. 7. 20.Wheat Climbs on Black Sea Risk, Soybeans Firm as China Returns+3.6%
2022. 3. 21.Wheat rebounds on Black Sea supply worries; corn, soybeans rise 1% - Markets - Business Recorder+2.5%
2026. 7. 22.Chicago wheat jumps on renewed attacks on Black Sea ports - Markets - Business Recorder-0.6%
2024. 5. 21.Wheat prices soar as Black Sea crop causes concern | Dry Bulk-1.5%

각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

연관 가격 변동

밀 (HRW)+8.4%1개 기간 · 2026. 7. 14.까지5.1σ
Early July 15 gains of 30-35 cents on threatened Black Sea exports and falling Russian July shipments are the same trade-flow driver, but the date is slightly off.

밀 (SRW) WHEAT · GP ▸

——— · ·

밀 (HRW) KWHEAT · GP ▸

——— · ·

불러오는 중…