◂ 이벤트 타임라인

2018. 6. 29.무역미국

USDA supply/demand forecast could factor in Mexico, China tariffs

USDA chief economist Rob Johansson said the department will factor China's and Mexico's retaliatory tariffs into its next global supply and demand report if they take effect, assuming they persist through the year. China's extra 25% duty on more than 500 US goods, including soybeans, is set for July 6, and Mexico has already imposed about $3 billion in tariffs on US products.

중요한 이유

Tariffs that hold through fall would divert Chinese soybean purchases to South America and widen US soybean price discounts, bearish for US soy and pork export demand.

영향 대상대두▼대두박▼돈육 (Lean Hogs)▼

출처 1건
businesstimes.com.sg2018. 6. 29.

가격 반응 및 이력

대두▼하락현재까지1d -0.3%5d +1.5%20d +1.1%

과거 하락 무역 이벤트 803건 이후, 대두은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.0% 변동(상승 51%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.7%~+1.7%), 20거래일 동안 +0.9%.

2022. 4. 22.Unusual Drop in China's Soy Demand Could Precede Pork Contraction - Pork Business-2.4%
2020. 11. 20.China Targets U.S. Farm Imports With Tariffs on Soy, Corn - Pork Business+1.2%
2026. 2. 22.Xi gains upper hand before Trump summit after US tariff reversal - The Business Times+1.7%
2018. 4. 5.All the Threats and Tariffs in the U.S.-China Trade Conflict+3.2%
2021. 9. 7.China's August soybean imports fall on flat demand - Markets - Business Recorder-0.8%

대두박▼하락현재까지1d +0.4%5d +2.5%20d +0.4%

과거 하락 무역 이벤트 384건 이후, 대두박은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.2% 변동(상승 47%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.7%~+1.6%), 20거래일 동안 -0.5%.

2022. 4. 22.Unusual Drop in China's Soy Demand Could Precede Pork Contraction - Pork Business-5.5%
2018. 7. 8.China’s demand for protein could increase rapeseed prices : The Daily Digest-3.2%
2021. 9. 7.China's August soybean imports fall on flat demand - Markets - Business Recorder+1.7%
2018. 4. 4.USDA: Tariffs Proposed by China Would Hit $16.5B in US Ag Exports+1.0%
2022. 9. 26.Chinese demand for grain imports takes tumble | The Western Producer-7.2%

돈육 (Lean Hogs)▼하락현재까지1d +0.8%5d -0.6%20d -16.6%

과거 하락 무역 이벤트 123건 이후, 돈육 (Lean Hogs)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.4% 변동(상승 43%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.9%~+2.0%), 20거래일 동안 -0.2%.

2018. 6. 8.Mexico: Mexico Applies Tariffs in Retaliation to Section 232 | USDA Foreign Agricultural Service+5.0%
2021. 7. 14.U.S. positioned for slowdown in China's pork demand-3.5%
2018. 7. 9.As Tariffs Bite, China Cancels U.S. Soy Deals and Hunt Is on for New Export Markets-1.8%
2018. 7. 6.New Chinese Tariffs Mean Lower Prices For Wisconsin Farmers - WPR-2.7%
2018. 6. 27.Supply and demand challenges continue for beef industry | Oklahoma State University+1.9%

각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

연관 가격 변동

대두+4.6%1개 기간 · 2018. 7. 5.까지4.5σ
USDA signaled it would factor the China tariffs due July 6 into its supply and demand report, so the market was repricing the trade shock just before the tariffs took effect.

대두 SOY · GP ▸

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대두박 SBM · GP ▸

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