◂ 이벤트 타임라인

2018. 7. 27.날씨글로벌

Look South, ENSO Forecasters!

A University of Oklahoma researcher writes that the South Pacific points to a weak, Central Pacific type El Niño forming this year, citing an NOAA estimate of a 70% chance of El Niño this winter. The post argues this flavor matters for predicting regional impacts.

중요한 이유

A weaker Central Pacific El Niño would likely bring smaller drought risk than a strong event, limiting the upside in grain and oilseed prices from weather alone.

영향 대상옥수수◆대두◆

출처 1건
climate.govJason Furtado2018. 7. 27.

가격 반응 및 이력

옥수수◆중립현재까지1d +0.1%5d +0.9%20d -1.9%

과거 중립 날씨 이벤트 445건 이후, 옥수수은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.1% 변동(상승 52%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.4%~+1.6%), 20거래일 동안 +0.7%.

2021. 7. 22.ENSO as a climate conductor for global crop yields | NOAA Climate.gov-2.8%
2018. 10. 22.Another mild winter? NOAA’s 2018-19 winter outlook | NOAA Climate.gov-1.2%
2019. 12. 12.December 2019 ENSO update: neutral, rinse, repeat | NOAA Climate.gov+5.5%
2018. 10. 6.How to prepare for an El Niño winter | Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast-0.3%
2017. 12. 13.A More-Favorable South America Forecast+2.1%

대두◆중립현재까지1d +1.1%5d +2.5%20d -2.2%

과거 중립 날씨 이벤트 324건 이후, 대두은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.0% 변동(상승 52%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.4%~+1.7%), 20거래일 동안 +0.7%.

2021. 7. 22.ENSO as a climate conductor for global crop yields | NOAA Climate.gov-0.5%
2018. 10. 22.Another mild winter? NOAA’s 2018-19 winter outlook | NOAA Climate.gov-1.4%
2018. 4. 20.South Asian Climate Outlook Forum predicts normal monsoon-0.9%
2019. 12. 12.December 2019 ENSO update: neutral, rinse, repeat | NOAA Climate.gov+3.9%
2018. 3. 6.Outlook for the 2018 growing season | Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast-3.1%

각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

옥수수 CORN · GP ▸

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대두 SOY · GP ▸

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