Export issues ahead as Russia invades Ukraine: Analyst’s insight

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 361건 이후, 밀 (SRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.7% 변동(상승 58%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.4%~+3.7%), 20거래일 동안 +1.3%.

• 2022. 2. 24.Wheat, soybeans hit nine-year highs as Russia invades Ukraine+6.8%
• 2022. 1. 31.Grain exports likely disrupted in a Russian, Ukraine conflict, analyst says-1.7%
• 2023. 9. 15.Why Is Russia Blocking Ukraine's Food Exports?+0.1%
• 2022. 2. 24.Commodity supplies at risk as Russia invades Ukraine | Reuters+6.8%
• 2024. 10. 10.Ukraine: Russia kills eight in latest attack on Odesa port-0.5%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 323건 이후, 옥수수은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.5% 변동(상승 57%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.5%~+2.9%), 20거래일 동안 +0.9%.

• 2022. 2. 24.Wheat, soybeans hit nine-year highs as Russia invades Ukraine+6.5%
• 2022. 1. 31.Grain exports likely disrupted in a Russian, Ukraine conflict, analyst says+0.6%
• 2023. 9. 15.Why Is Russia Blocking Ukraine's Food Exports?-7.1%
• 2022. 2. 24.Commodity supplies at risk as Russia invades Ukraine | Reuters+6.5%
• 2024. 10. 10.Ukraine: Russia kills eight in latest attack on Odesa port-2.6%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 110건 이후, 대두유은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +1.8% 변동(상승 65%; 중간 50% 범위 -0.7%~+3.6%), 20거래일 동안 -0.4%.

• 2026. 1. 1.Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports cause drop in food exports+0.3%
• 2022. 2. 24.Factbox: Russia’s Ukraine invasion seen disrupting vegetable oil, grain trade flows+5.0%
• 2022. 3. 11.Overcoming the threats to global food systems from Russia's invasion of Ukraine | IFPRI-6.3%
• 2026. 7. 27.Black Sea grain trapped as Russia, Ukraine attacks continue | World Grain-5.7%
• 2022. 2. 28.Euro slides with U.S. stock futures as Ukraine risks rise+4.7%