◂ 이벤트 타임라인

2019. 5. 15.질병중국

US-China dispute and effects of ASF on feed - Food & Agribusiness

Rabobank's China Food & Agribusiness Monthly says African Swine Fever has spread across China, depressing pig feed consumption. Rabobank's base case cuts Chinese soymeal usage by 4% and feed corn usage by 8% in 2019.

State crushers have booked 13-14 million tonnes of US soybeans, with about 7 million tonnes still outstanding, and further purchases could halt if trade tensions escalate.

중요한 이유

Lower feed demand in China reduces import needs for corn and soymeal, which is bearish for those markets. Trade-driven purchase halts add further downside risk to US soybean prices.

영향 대상옥수수▼대두박▼대두▼

출처 1건
foodagribusiness.worldEmmy Koeleman2019. 5. 15.

가격 반응 및 이력

옥수수▼하락현재까지1d +1.5%5d +5.5%20d +11.1%

과거 하락 질병 이벤트 175건 이후, 옥수수은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.0% 변동(상승 51%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.7%~+1.5%), 20거래일 동안 +0.6%.

2018. 3. 12.AI impact on the South African feed industry - Food & Agribusiness+1.7%
2019. 4. 24.Impacts of African Swine Fever on China's Feed Industry and Soy Demand - Rabobank-1.5%
2019. 11. 15.ADM exec: ASF in China positively affecting margins | Feed Strategy-0.7%
2020. 3. 4.Coronavirus complicates ASF situation in China | Feed Strategy+1.1%
2019. 8. 1.Cargill shuts China feed mills as swine fever spreads-3.0%

대두박▼하락현재까지1d +2.0%5d +0.4%20d +8.7%

과거 하락 질병 이벤트 167건 이후, 대두박은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.6% 변동(상승 40%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.8%~+1.4%), 20거래일 동안 -0.8%.

2018. 8. 29.ASF outbreaks in China: Effect on feed ingredients - Food & Agribusiness+1.8%
2018. 12. 5.More and more ASF cases in China - imports of US pork-0.6%
2019. 4. 24.Impacts of African Swine Fever on China's Feed Industry and Soy Demand - Rabobank-1.7%
2018. 11. 1.Effects from African swine fever may reduce China's soybean needs.+0.5%
2020. 3. 4.Coronavirus complicates ASF situation in China | Feed Strategy-2.6%

대두▼하락현재까지1d +2.2%5d +0.5%20d +7.4%

과거 하락 질병 이벤트 50건 이후, 대두은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.5% 변동(상승 58%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.7%~+2.4%), 20거래일 동안 +0.0%.

2018. 3. 12.AI impact on the South African feed industry - Food & Agribusiness+2.0%
2018. 12. 5.More and more ASF cases in China - imports of US pork+0.9%
2019. 4. 24.Impacts of African Swine Fever on China's Feed Industry and Soy Demand - Rabobank-2.4%
2018. 11. 1.Effects from African swine fever may reduce China's soybean needs.+3.4%
2019. 2. 28.China warns of “serious” impact of swine fever, cuts meal demand 5%-1.5%

각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

연관 가격 변동

대두박+6.3%5개 기간 · 2019. 5. 15.까지3.2σ
ASF-driven cuts to Chinese soymeal usage and the risk that crusher purchases halt reduce demand for US soy products.

옥수수 CORN · GP ▸

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대두박 SBM · GP ▸

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