◂ 이벤트 타임라인

2019. 4. 24.질병중국

Impacts of African Swine Fever on China's Feed Industry and Soy Demand

Rabobank analyst Lief Chiang expects African swine fever to depress China's feed consumption, especially hog feed, in 2019. Rabobank forecasts China's pork output could fall 25% to 35% in 2019, with soymeal usage declining only modestly due to higher inclusion rates and poultry growth.

중요한 이유

Lower hog feed use reduces China's soybean and soymeal import demand, which is bearish for soybeans and soybean meal prices even though the decline is partly cushioned by feed efficiency gains and poultry growth.

영향 대상대두박▼대두▼돈육 (Lean Hogs)▼옥수수▼

출처 1건
rabobank.comLief Chiang2019. 4. 24.

가격 반응 및 이력

대두박▼하락현재까지1d -0.2%5d -1.7%20d -1.9%

과거 하락 질병 이벤트 167건 이후, 대두박은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.6% 변동(상승 40%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.8%~+1.4%), 20거래일 동안 -0.8%.

2018. 9. 11.African Swine Fever May Reduce China's Soybean Demand-4.1%
2021. 3. 10.Resurgence of African Swine Fever in China Threatens Global Grain Demand-3.0%
2019. 2. 28.China warns of “serious” impact of swine fever, cuts meal demand 5%-1.0%
2019. 3. 12.Swine fever hurts China soybean demand, raises doubts on trade promises+4.4%
2018. 11. 1.Effects from African swine fever may reduce China's soybean needs.+0.5%

대두▼하락현재까지1d -0.8%5d -2.4%20d -4.6%

과거 하락 질병 이벤트 50건 이후, 대두은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.5% 변동(상승 58%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.7%~+2.4%), 20거래일 동안 +0.0%.

2018. 9. 11.African Swine Fever May Reduce China's Soybean Demand-1.2%
2021. 3. 10.Resurgence of African Swine Fever in China Threatens Global Grain Demand-1.2%
2019. 2. 28.China warns of “serious” impact of swine fever, cuts meal demand 5%-1.5%
2018. 3. 12.AI impact on the South African feed industry - Food & Agribusiness+2.0%
2019. 3. 12.Swine fever hurts China soybean demand, raises doubts on trade promises+3.2%

돈육 (Lean Hogs)▼하락현재까지1d +0.9%5d -1.8%20d +2.2%

과거 하락 질병 이벤트 117건 이후, 돈육 (Lean Hogs)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.6% 변동(상승 36%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.2%~+1.6%), 20거래일 동안 +1.2%.

2018. 9. 11.African Swine Fever May Reduce China's Soybean Demand+4.5%
2021. 3. 10.Resurgence of African Swine Fever in China Threatens Global Grain Demand+4.4%
2019. 2. 28.China warns of “serious” impact of swine fever, cuts meal demand 5%+2.0%
2019. 1. 1.African Swine Fever in China: An Update+2.9%
2018. 8. 27.China's soybean, soymeal futures fall on African swine fever worries-3.6%

옥수수▼하락현재까지1d -0.8%5d -1.5%20d +5.3%

과거 하락 질병 이벤트 175건 이후, 옥수수은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.0% 변동(상승 51%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.7%~+1.5%), 20거래일 동안 +0.6%.

2018. 9. 11.African Swine Fever May Reduce China's Soybean Demand-1.8%
2021. 3. 10.Resurgence of African Swine Fever in China Threatens Global Grain Demand-9.5%
2018. 3. 12.AI impact on the South African feed industry - Food & Agribusiness+1.7%
2021. 7. 12.African Swine Fever Persists in Parts of China - UkrAgroConsult-6.7%
2019. 2. 1.Year of the Pig: Swine fever threatens China’s pork industry | CNN-0.3%

각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

대두박 SBM · GP ▸

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대두 SOY · GP ▸

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