Strong El Niño this year appears unlikely

과거 하락 날씨 이벤트 357건 이후, 옥수수은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.3% 변동(상승 44%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.2%~+1.3%), 20거래일 동안 -0.5%.

• 2019. 4. 1.March 2019 El Niño Update: Think spring+0.2%
• 2025. 12. 11.La Niña to fade early next year, neutral Pacific conditions likely, U.S. forecasters say - AgCanada+0.5%
• 2026. 2. 18.Top DTN La Nina to El Nino Analog Years Show Large US Corn Production+0.2%
• 2024. 8. 4.La Niña’s likely return will undo some of past year’s crop havoc - Moneyweb-1.7%
• 2024. 3. 21.El Niño's impact on U.S. Farmers | American Ag Network-3.0%

과거 하락 날씨 이벤트 334건 이후, 밀 (SRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.2% 변동(상승 47%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.9%~+1.7%), 20거래일 동안 -0.2%.

• 2019. 5. 1.Strong chance of El Niño developing, but likely to be short-lived: BOM - Grain Central-4.6%
• 2023. 5. 30.The spectre of El Niño - Mecardo-4.0%
• 2024. 8. 4.La Niña’s likely return will undo some of past year’s crop havoc - Moneyweb+4.7%
• 2018. 4. 25.El Niño–Southern Oscillation likely to remain neutral through winter - Grain Central+3.5%
• 2024. 3. 21.El Niño's impact on U.S. Farmers | American Ag Network+0.9%

과거 하락 날씨 이벤트 29건 이후, 팜유은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.3% 변동(상승 38%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.2%~+0.6%), 20거래일 동안 -1.4%.

• 2024. 7. 11.La Nina weather 70% likely to develop in Aug-Oct, says US forecaster | Reuters+0.9%
• 2019. 5. 27.WMO El Niño/La Niña Update (May 2019) - World | ReliefWeb-0.1%
• 2017. 10. 4.Palm oil production to revive following departure of El Niño+0.9%
• 2017. 3. 9.Global palm oil output likely to increase by six mln tonnes — Expert | Borneo Post Online-1.8%
• 2023. 9. 11.BERNAMA - Analysts Forecast Cpo Prices At Rm4,000-rm4,200 Next Year-1.3%