La Niña to fade early next year, neutral Pacific conditions likely, U.S. forecasters say

과거 하락 날씨 이벤트 363건 이후, 대두은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.6% 변동(상승 42%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.5%~+1.1%), 20거래일 동안 -0.2%.

• 2024. 8. 8.Sixty-six per cent chance of La Niña weather emerging, U.S. forecaster says - AgCanada-4.0%
• 2016. 12. 9.La Niña still present, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favoured during Jan-Mar 2017+0.2%
• 2024. 8. 4.La Niña’s likely return will undo some of past year’s crop havoc - Moneyweb-0.1%
• 2024. 1. 18.U.S. grains: Soy, corn futures end higher after setting multi-year lows - AgCanada+2.9%
• 2026. 1. 8.US CPC sees 75% chance of La Nina transition by early 2026 | Reuters-2.1%

과거 하락 날씨 이벤트 357건 이후, 옥수수은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.3% 변동(상승 44%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.2%~+1.3%), 20거래일 동안 -0.5%.

• 2024. 8. 8.Sixty-six per cent chance of La Niña weather emerging, U.S. forecaster says - AgCanada-0.2%
• 2016. 12. 9.La Niña still present, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favoured during Jan-Mar 2017+2.4%
• 2024. 8. 4.La Niña’s likely return will undo some of past year’s crop havoc - Moneyweb-1.7%
• 2024. 1. 18.U.S. grains: Soy, corn futures end higher after setting multi-year lows - AgCanada+1.1%
• 2026. 2. 18.Top DTN La Nina to El Nino Analog Years Show Large US Corn Production+0.2%

과거 중립 날씨 이벤트 224건 이후, 밀 (SRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.1% 변동(상승 46%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.4%~+1.5%), 20거래일 동안 +0.4%.

• 2024. 6. 13.La Nina weather 65% likely to develop in July-Sept, says US forecaster | Reuters-2.1%
• 2018. 4. 30.IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | April Climate Briefing: La Niña Transitions Out, Neutral Next+2.6%
• 2019. 5. 9.ENSO WILL TOE THE LINE BETWEEN EL NIÑO AND NEUTRAL CONDITIONS DURING JUNE-AUGUST-1.5%
• 2021. 3. 3.La Niña weakens, but influence likely to continue into autumn-2.4%
• 2018. 12. 3.Weak El Nino conditions developing in the Pacific this winter: IMD - The HinduBusinessLine+0.9%