Uncertain about Iranian oil, OPEC+ likely to stick to policy

과거 하락 정책 이벤트 215건 이후, 원유 (WTI)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.1% 변동(상승 51%; 중간 50% 범위 -4.4%~+3.3%), 20거래일 동안 +0.2%.

• 2025. 12. 1.Oil Surplus Outlook, Uncertain Geopolitics Led OPEC+ to Pause Hikes: Rystad - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company+2.7%
• 2018. 3. 9.Opec+ likely to raise July oil output by 188,000 bpd+1.7%
• 2025. 4. 1.OPEC+ likely to proceed with planned May oil output hike, sources say-15.1%
• 2021. 9. 1.Oil steadies; OPEC+ sticks to gradual output hikes | Reuters+1.3%
• 2021. 9. 1.OPEC+ sticks to gradual oil output hikes, ups demand forecast+1.3%

과거 하락 정책 이벤트 210건 이후, 원유 (Brent)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.9% 변동(상승 48%; 중간 50% 범위 -3.8%~+3.2%), 20거래일 동안 +0.2%.

• 2025. 12. 1.Oil Surplus Outlook, Uncertain Geopolitics Led OPEC+ to Pause Hikes: Rystad - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company+0.7%
• 2018. 3. 9.Opec+ likely to raise July oil output by 188,000 bpd+1.0%
• 2025. 4. 1.OPEC+ likely to proceed with planned May oil output hike, sources say-14.2%
• 2021. 9. 1.Oil steadies; OPEC+ sticks to gradual output hikes | Reuters-2.2%
• 2021. 4. 27.OPEC+ sticks to plan to ease oil output cuts from May 1 | Reuters+3.2%