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2026. 10. 1.지정학글로벌

Hunger on the Horizon: The New Black Sea Grain Crisis

Council on Foreign Relations analysis says the Russia-Ukraine war re-erupted in the Black Sea in July 2026, disrupting about 17% of world traded grain. Drought cut the US wheat crop to its smallest since 1970, and wheat prices have reached a three-and-a-half-year high near $8 per bushel.

중요한 이유

Combined with a forecast super El Niño and fertilizer price spikes, the chokepoint closure is expected to push global food prices higher and keep wheat and corn supported.

영향 대상밀 (SRW)▲밀 (HRW)▲옥수수▲요소▲

출처 1건
cfr.orgCouncil on Foreign Relations2026. 10. 1.

가격 반응 및 이력

밀 (SRW)▲상승현재까지1d +0.2%5d -2.9%20d +0.5%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 361건 이후, 밀 (SRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.7% 변동(상승 58%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.4%~+3.7%), 20거래일 동안 +1.3%.

2026. 7. 24.Grains Markets Hit New Highs on Black Sea Attacks, Crude Oil Rally-2.2%
2026. 7. 31.Black Sea logistics crisis keeps grain markets on edge — Hectare Trading | The online marketplace for crops-1.0%
2023. 2. 27.Ukraine seeks changes to the Black Sea Grain Initiative-2.4%
2022. 3. 10.Grains edge higher as hopes for Black Sea ceasefire fade – The Seam-3.3%
2023. 5. 5.Chicago grains end week up as no new Black Sea ships authorized-1.9%

밀 (HRW)▲상승현재까지1d +0.6%5d +0.8%20d -12.3%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 94건 이후, 밀 (HRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.1% 변동(상승 50%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.7%~+5.8%), 20거래일 동안 +0.1%.

2023. 4. 25.Wheat: All Eyes Are On Extension Of The Black Sea Grain Deal - TalkMarkets-5.4%
2024. 11. 27.How much Black Sea wheat is at risk of disruption? Grain market daily | AHDB-4.1%
2022. 1. 25.Frost risk remains for Black Sea crops: Grain market daily | AHDB-4.5%
2026. 9. 1.GRAINS-Chicago wheat hits multi-year peak after Russia rejects Black Sea grain plan - NewsX-1.9%
2023. 7. 17.Black Sea grain deal expires after Russia quits | Reuters+6.3%

옥수수▲상승현재까지1d +0.2%5d -1.2%20d -6.7%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 323건 이후, 옥수수은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.5% 변동(상승 57%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.5%~+2.9%), 20거래일 동안 +0.9%.

2026. 7. 24.Grains Markets Hit New Highs on Black Sea Attacks, Crude Oil Rally-3.8%
2023. 2. 27.Ukraine seeks changes to the Black Sea Grain Initiative-1.3%
2023. 5. 5.Chicago grains end week up as no new Black Sea ships authorized-0.2%
2022. 3. 10.Grains edge higher as hopes for Black Sea ceasefire fade – The Seam+2.5%
2022. 6. 15.Unblocking the Black Sea for Ukrainian Grain | RAND-1.6%

요소▲상승현재까지1d -5.1%5d -6.6%20d -4.1%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 205건 이후, 요소은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.4% 변동(상승 53%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.1%~+3.0%), 20거래일 동안 -0.4%.

2022. 5. 26.Black swan in the Black Sea: fertilizer-17.1%
2026. 9. 11.How Do the Latest Black Sea Attacks Affect Global Food Security?+2.2%
2023. 6. 9.The Ukraine Crisis and India’s Fertiliser Security - MP-IDSA+2.0%
2026. 10. 25.Fertilizer’s Next Big Problem? It Goes Beyond the Strait of Hormuz-0.1%
2022. 9. 28.How the war in Ukraine is affecting the world's supply of fertilizer : NPR-5.3%

각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

밀 (SRW) WHEAT · GP ▸

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밀 (HRW) KWHEAT · GP ▸

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